Posted by Abdul Alim
Let Us Build Pakistan: — by Kumail Ahmed
1. Pakistani Rupee (PKR) will further devalue
The rupee will further decline against dollar due to two reasons. The first is Hajj, and the second is elections.
In the Hajj season many pilgrims carry US$ instead of Pak rupee. An excessive purchase of US$ will decrease its supply in the open market creating a shortage of dollar. This will automatically increase the price tag for the US$, hence futher devaluing Pakistani rupee.
Election rallies are going to start from November 2012. Political parties in power (in centre and in Punjab) will illegally waste the treasury money on their political procession. The government will need a massive amount of money to fulfil such a task. This massive amount of money will come from printing out new notes, hence increasing inflation. This increase in inflation will increase the amount of PKR in the market, further devaluing the currency.
2. Election will not take place this year.
Elections will take place in the first half of 2013. Two basic reasons are Army’s mood and the electoral rolls.
The army is in no mood to bring in a martial law in Pakistan. It is fighting a massive war in Waziristan area against terrorism. Its involvement in national politics will bring it bad name, and the will to fight a war will wane.
Dismantling the democratic setup will open a Pandora’s Box in Pakistan. Relationship with United State are at a historic low, the economic growth rate is embarrassing, and terrorism is out of control and sporadic. A martial law would be the last ingredient in this soup of instability.
The electoral roll is the second reason for elections to take place on 2013. These rolls will be completed till the end of October 2012. The process of jotting done all legal voters is difficult and tardy, especially in the flood affected areas of Sindh, and war affected areas of FATA. This makes the process extremely difficult to accomplish. Without a proper electoral count, elections 2013 will be of a theatre show with the same characters.